The political situation

Should be a fun 8 months- since the next election will be called by September/October. A Conservative minority is the only minority that cannot sustain itself simply because they will not be able to form a coalition of any kind with the other parties. The Bloc and the NDP are disaffected liberals and in fact are more liberal than the liberals. They would deal with Harper as a hostage taker deals with a hostage.

Martin quit a little too early. With the Bloc and NDP support, the government would still be his to control. Even without it, that still would have made him the defacto prime minister anyways, with Harper relying on his support to govern. He could have chosen to stay on and remake his public image through compromise when needed, and steadfast opposition when required.

What is done is done though, so now the liberals get the chance to have the focus over the next 8 months - grab the media spotlight in their search for a new leader. This is the only opportunity that Harper will get to enact any of his proposed legislation since he will not face any great levels of resistance.In fact, his best bet is to try to divide the liberal party even more by issuing frequent challenges to the leadership hopefuls to comment on their support of his policies. Liberals will need to resist the urge to feed on each other if they do not wish to lose the majority they should have in the next election.

Once the gyrations are over with in the leadership race, the prediction is that the country will now have a newly invigorated and united liberal party- which, here in Canada, is a pretty powerful force. The new leader will be itching to lead and a plurality of the voters, through opinion polls, will want them to lead. Of course anything can happen during the course of an election; but a liberal majority should be the expected outcome.

Harper will need to avoid any missteps, his people will need to be on their best behavior, and he is going to need a lot of luck.